Tuesday, December 4, 2007

Arabian or Persian Gulf: the GCC



The newspapers in the States occasionally refer to the GCC or the Gulf Cooperative Council. Just recently (Dec. 3-4, 2007), the GCC met in Doha for their 28th meeting and our papers were full of news. Much perhaps should reach a wider audience although I have seen little in the American press. Some background first: officially the GCC is the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf and includes as members Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The organization was established in 1981 to promote stability and economic cooperation among Persian or Arabian Gulf nations. While all members are on the gulf, not all states on the gulf are members, most notably Iran and Iraq. In 2003 GCC members eliminated tariffs on trade between member nations and established common external tariffs. They have agreed to establish a broader economic union (including a single market and currency) by 2010, and this is one subject of discussion in the current meeting.

On the 2nd, Iran's foreign ministry confirmed that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad would attend the summit of the GCC, the first such visit by an Iranian leader, as the Associated Press reported.

The six member group of Arab states located on the southern littoral of the Persian Gulf was formed in 1980 in part to confront expansionist fears of Iran after its Islamic revolution. "The president will attend the summit based on the invitation by Qatar's Emir," spokesman of the ministry, Mohammad Ali Hosseini told reporters. "This is the first time that an Iranian president is to attend the summit."

From regional newspapers we can gather some interesting perspectives, and better understand the possibilities of the organization in the region.

Lebanon’s Daily Star editorializes that

The gathering presents a chance to revamp projects like the GCC common market, as well as to improve coordination aimed at the eventual creation of a single currency. In addition, additional harmony in fiscal matters, more sensitive planning in economic ones, and carefully crafted labor policies can help all of the council's members to both reap greater rewards from their energy reserves and accelerate diversification efforts required to prepare for the day when the wells run dry. For good measure, there is also the potential to institutionalize the encouraging environmental steps taken recently by several GCC states so that the next stage of development sees the Gulf setting an example for rising industrial powers like China and India.

Arab Times Online reported early on the 4th that despite the UAE’s interest in removing the currency pegs to the U.S. dollar, Saudia Arabia was adamantly opposed, although Kuwait initiated de-pegging its currency in July of this year.

UAE Central Bank Governor Sultan Nasser al-Suweidi had raised expectations the summit could signal a shift in foreign exchange policy when he called last month for Gulf states to sever pegs to the tumbling dollar and track a currency basket. Bids on the Saudi riyal slipped off 21-year highs to as low as 3.7182 per dollar after Finance Minister Ibrahim al-Assaf ruled out dropping his country’s peg to the dollar. “We will not drop it. That’s it,” Assaf told reporters in Doha where he and other finance ministers prepared the agenda for the rulers’ talks.

Arab Times Online also reported on Ahmadinejad’s presentation, following the opening address of the Emir of Qatar, to the Council on Dec. 3rd, when he warned the Gulf leaders that any security problem in one state would affect all countries.

“Any security problem that could happen in one country will have a negative effect on the security of all countries,” he said in the televised speech, in which he referred to the region as the Persian, not Arabian, Gulf. GCC members Saudi Arabia, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar share Western concerns about Iran’s nuclear programme and some have maritime border disputes with the Islamic Republic. Ahmadinejad made no mention of his country’s nuclear plans, or a Saudi proposal last month to defuse the standoff with the West by supplying Iran with enriched uranium. However, in a bid to increase ties with the Gulf, Ahmadinejad offered to share Iran’s expertise in a range of fields, including “energy and the new technologies”. Iran has in the past offered to help the Gulf with nuclear knowhow.


It is interesting to note the sparring over the name of the gulf which the GCC refers to as Arabian Gulf and Iran insists is the Persian Gulf. In May 2006 there was a small, polite skirmish between the Emir of Qatar and Ahmadinejad. As reported by the Associated Press in May 2006

Attempting diplomatic niceties as he was saying goodbye, the emir, Sheik Hamad bin-Khalifa al-Thani, congratulated his host on Iran’s fine soccer team and said he hoped it would bring pride to all the “Arab Persian Gulf” region during the 2006 World Cup in Germany.
Not missing a beat, Ahmadinejad shot back:
“I believe you called it the Persian Gulf when you studied in school,” he said in a pointed reference to the emir’s education at Sandhurst Military Academy in England, once the colonial ruler of much of the Arab world.
Seemingly unfazed, the emir fired Monday’s final volley: “By the way, the gulf belongs to all.”
Since Ahmadinejad’s election last summer, Tehran’s relations have significantly cooled with its oil- and gas-rich neighbors, and are far chillier than in the days of his predecessor, Mohammad Khatami, who promoted dialogue and close ties with Arab neighbors.

At the end of this summit, asked about the use of the term "Persian Gulf" by Ahmedinejad in his speech at the summit, Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim said, "This is a problematic term though we cannot describe it as disputed. Historically this region is called the Persian Gulf but we call it the Arabian Gulf. However, this is not the most important issue in our relations with Iran."


Returning to December 2007, the Emir H H Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani addressed the opening summit of the 28th meeting with a discussion of security in the region, a key area of concern for the GCC member states, indicating that the United Nations should be the place to resolve regional disputes. As reported in the Peninsula, he said that

“While we realise that the mounting crises in the region have their reasons and backgrounds, and many of them are clear to us, we hope that all those who are concerned with the regional and international issues reconsider their positions before it is too late.”

He returned to a favorite theme of his, scientific development and the future of economic prosperity in the region, saying that

“The field of scientific research in particular remains in need of further attention and care because it is one of the main basics not only of sustainable development, but also of progress in its comprehensive sense.”

At the end of the two-day session, a number of interesting developments were reported. First and perhaps foremost was the decision to table any discussion of de-pegging the GCC currencies from the U.S. dollar, with the exception of Kuwait which did this in July 2007. Then there was the announcement that in January 2008 there would be a common market in the GCC. The move to a common currency is still on plan and will be discussed at the next summit in Muscat.

GCC Secretary-General H E Abdulrahman bin Hamad Al Attiyah, said: “This fraternal meeting emphasised once again the deep keenness of all leaders of the Council member states on strengthening the ties of fraternity and solidarity among our states and the promotion and upgrading of our Council's march for the good and advancement of our peoples.” ... Later Al Attiyah told a conference that all member states had agreed on the principles of a Gulf common market which stipulates that all GCC citizens will be treated equally in all economic fields in any of the six-member states. ... GCC citizens can undertake economic activities in any of the member-countries without hindrance which also applies for investments and services, practising a profession, dealing in shares in the stock markets, employment in private and public sectors, social security and pension, real estate ownership, transfer of capital, free movement and residency, education and health services. ... "The Gulf common market is aimed thus to establish one market which would benefit all GCC citizens that Gulf economies provide and would also open up more opportunities for investments between Gulf countries,” Al Attiyah said. The GCC Secretary-General also said that the summit recommended that all necessary steps be taken to establish monetary union by 2010 and also to exert efforts to integrate services, like a common electricity grid and linking water distribution network as well as a railway link between the GCC member-states all of which will be included in the recommendations to be submitted at the summit in Muscat.

It is noteworthy that this conference, with little or no press in the U.S. and to which the Iranian President was invited for the first time, played out at the same time that the United States N.I.E. announced that their intelligence showed that Iran had abandoned its nuclear project in 2003.
The Peninsula On-Line reports that when asked about US intelligence reports that Iran has halted its nuclear weapons program four years ago, the Prime Minister said, "We have no information about this, apart from what we have understood from our brothers in Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency. We believe Iran will use its nuclear capability for peaceful purposes." Yet, in the Peninsula Times of Dec. 7, we read that
speaking in Iran on Wednesday, Ahmadinejad was quoted by the state news agency saying that the US report was a “final blow” to Iran’s critics and was a clear message “that the Iranian people were on the right course. Today, Iran has turned to a nuclear country and all world countries have accepted this fact”.

I remain disappointed that the U.S. press did not report on this summit out of which came the commitment to a GCC common market in January 2008, less than one month away, and continuation of the plan for a common currency in the GCC by 2010. The inclusion of Iran as an invited guest provides a foretaste of the future in this region; and all three of these items are more than of passing interest to the U.S. and its allies.